Wednesday, October 26, 2011

How the survival of the Big 12 could impact the college football landscape

The Big 12 has survived.  Texas, Tex Tech, Oklahoma and Ok St are committed to the success of this conference.  Dan Bebee is out and the Big 12 has become a proactive conference rather than reacting to poaching.  The Big 12 is stable now.  Missouri will soon be gone but replaced.  Unfortunately, Missouri leaving provides a great opportunity for college football reform.  What is my suggestion?  5 14 team almost super-conferences.

Let's start with the easiest one to predict, the SEC:
SEC East:
Florida
Georgia,
South Carolina,
Kentucky
Tennessee,
Vanderbilt
Missouri

SEC West:
Alabama,
Auburn,
Ole Miss,
Mississippi St,

LSU,
Arkansas,
Texas A&M

Next up let's look at what the Big 12 could do to establish themselves as one of the premier conferences
Big 12 East:
Baylor,
TCU,
USF,
UCF,
Louisville,
Cincinnati,
West Virginia

Big 12 West:
Texas,
Texas Tech,
Oklahoma,
Oklahoma St,
Kansas,
Kansas St,
Iowa St

The ACC has already committed to 14 teams:
ACC North:
Boston College,
Syracuse,
Pittsburgh,
Maryland,
Virginia,
Virginia Tech
Miami

ACC South
Duke,
UNC,
NC State,
Wake Forest,
Clemson,
Georgia Tech,
Florida State

Next would be the Big 10 who would take up the remnants of the Big East like so...
Big 10 East:
Ohio State,
Wisconsin,
Indiana,
Purdue,

Penn State,
Rutgers,
UConn,


Big 10 West:
Michigan,
Michigan State,
Illinois,
Northwestern,

Minnesota,
Nebraska,
Iowa,

and finally, the fifth conference of 14, the Pac:
Pac 14 North:
Washington
Washington State,
Oregon,
Oregon State,
Stanford,
California,

Pac 14 South:
Arizona,
Arizona State,
Colorado,
Utah,
USC,
UCLA,

Notre Dame: The embodiment of everything wrong in college athletics

Disclaimer: I have nothing against Notre Dame or the Catholic religion.  I recognize Notre Dame as being a program rich in tradition, with a national following and respectable athletics

However, I feel that Notre Dame embodies everything that is currently wrong with college athletics...don't believe me? That's your call, but let me share my two cents.

1. Notre Dame is viewed as the holy grail- tons of revenue.  Instant prestige and credibility.  As of today, the ACC, Big 10 and Big 12 all would love to welcome Notre Dame to their fold.  What is the problem?  The closest school in the ACC would be Pittsburgh, an 8 hour drive to Indiana.  If Notre Dame joins the ACC, UConn will probably be team #16.  The Big 10 has no reason to expand unless Notre Dame is available.  Ya Louisville will probably get picked up by the Big 12.  Maybe Cincy will too in this scenario.  But Rutgers and South Florida will be alone with no AQ conference potential and none of that BCS money.

Big 12?  Now that West Virginia is joining has their closest school 7 hours away.  Everyone is giving up the potential to develop great regional rivalries for the almighty dollar of Notre Dame.  The Big 12 could pick up West Virginia, Louisville and Cincinnati, three programs with similar cultures, history and rivalries stemming from the Big East days.  UConn and Rutgers would probably get picked up by the ACC to create regional rivals with Syracuse and Boston College.But Cincy and South Florida would be left out in the cold if the Big 12 can make Notre Dame join..even if it means adding BYU for football and Notre Dame for everything else.

How about the Big 10, who has everything they want?  I'll be honest, I don't know who the Big 10 would pick up as team 14 if Notre Dame joined. I have heard Rutgers, and that would probably be my first guess. ACC won't add anyone unless Notre Dame is part of the deal...sorry UConn. How about you, USF with the Tampa market?  Nah, we got that covered with Florida State.

Regardless of what happens, if Notre Dame joins ANY conference and gives up their independence, it will be at the expense of someone else.  Regardless of whether Notre Dame is a better geographical or cultural fit is a moot point.  Because with the money of Notre Dame, who cares?  Someone is gonna get left out.

Nevermind the incredible rivalry opportunities of the Big 12 adding WVU, Louisville, Cincy, USF and UCF to make a 14 team conference with a triad of close rivals and a rivalry in-state that would be passionate and intense every year.

Nevermind the Big 10 adding UConn and Rutgers to reach 14 and pick up NY and NE markets while retaining that Big East rivalry.

Nevermind the ACC adding UConn and Rutgers to develop a NE rivalry between Boston College and UConn, and a NY rivalry between Rutgers and Syracuse.

Finally, Notre Dame's approach regarding conference affiliations embodies the current collegiate psyche.  I am a strong advocate of Notre Dame staying independent because it works out nicer.  But let's face it.  Notre Dame has decided it would rather put it's schools own interests ahead of what is best for the college landscape.  It is this attitude which has been adopted by the Pac 12, the Big 10, the Big 12, the SEC and even the ACC which is truly disturbing.  Despite the options laid out to develop 5 14 team conferences loosely based on geographic rivals (like the Pac) everyone has decided they are too content with what they have.  Which will leave the remnants of the Big East stranded in isolation.  Why?  Because Cincinnati isn't an attractive option for the Big 10 with Ohio State around.  The SEC wouldn't dare consider USF, UCF or Louisville because they already have Florida and Kentucky.

The simple matter is teams will get left out for one of two reasons:
1. They got replaced by the more attractive beauty queen known as Notre Dame.
2. The greediness of conferences and lack of desire to seek what is in the best interest of college football as a collective, but rather solely what is in the best interest of the 12-14 conference members.

None of these will happen despite the attractiveness of these options because none of these programs bring in the financial revenue of Notre Dame.  Which is too bad.  It really is a damn shame that the almighty dollar is more important than the rivalries which have made college football great for so long.

Friday, October 7, 2011

Saving the Big 12

Well nonexistent readers, we have some interesting developments.  Let's catch you up...
Texas and Oklahoma have set their differences aside to try and make the Big 12 work.  As a result, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State are staying put as well.  Texas A&M has left the conference and Missouri is looking for the exit sign, hoping the SEC calls their name.  Meanwhile, The ACC picked up Syracuse and Pittsburgh to expand to 14 teams.

Jim Delaney has stated that the Big 10 is sitting out this round of re-alignment roulette.  Ditto for Larry Scott and the Pac 12.  The SEC has 1 or 3 vacancies depending on if they are looking at going to 14 or 16.  The Big 12 (which just picked up TCU) is currently at 10 teams, and looking into further expansion.  The Big East is also looking to expand, but no one wants to join until they know what they are getting into.

I have a new plan.  One which allows the Big 10 and the Pac 12 to sit by and enjoy their new companions.  One in which the current members of the Big East all get to retain the BCS bowl berth, as well as the Big 12, albeit in a different format.  The one flaw to my plan?  The ACC would have to pick up UConn and Rutgers to expand to 16 teams.  Let's also assume the SEC decides to pick up West Virginia to get to 14 teams and pick up an Eastern team instead of splitting up Alabama & Auburn.  My plan works almost as well if the SEC picks up Missouri, but not quite as neat.  For now let's assume WVU is off to the SEC

Our new look Big East:
Rutgers
Syracuse
Uconn
Pittsburgh
West Virginia
Louisville
Cincinnati
South Florida

The Big 12 currently looks like:
Texas
Texas Tech
TCU
Baylor
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Iowa State
Missouri
Kansas
Kansas State

Strategy: We want to improve the strength of the conference while expanding the conference footpirnt.  Let's add BYU and Air Force from Independence and the Mountain West to pick up the Utah (and actually national Mormon) TV sets as well as Denver.  Next let's pick up South Florida and Central Florida to gain the Tampa and Orlando markets.  Yes USF, it is time to let in your little brother UCF.  The Big 12 would pick up  more TV markets, but you get to keep your BCS eligibility which you would have otherwise lost.  Lastly, if any conference knows what it is like to be a smaller market team in a state and get passed over it should be the Big 12.  Don't be jerks and pick up Cincinnati and Louisville.  They actually do increase the conference footprint.  We have expanded to 6 new markets (I guess 5 if you count Orlando and Tampa together), and have acquired a number of up-and-coming programs (UCF, USF, Cincinnati) as well as some with a history of success (BYU, TCU, AF).

Next up is how to organize our new super-conference .  I propose an East West split with certain rivalries preserved.  There are two options...here is option 1:

Big 12 West:
Air Force
BYU
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas
Texas Tech
Kansas
Kansas State

Big 12 East:
UCF
USF
Baylor
TCU
Iowa State
Missouri
Louisville
Cincinnati

Alternatively, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State could be shifted to the East to make them more competitively balanced.  In addition, if Missouri decides they still want out and the SEC takes them, you can substitute West Virginia.  No one gets left out in the cold.  Well except Boise State...
This would however spell the ultimate demise of the Big East.  Let's look at the damages left for our basketball only compadres:

Big East Basketball Conference:

DePaul (Chicago)
Georgetown (Washington DC)
Maquette (Milwaukee)
Notre Dame (The Notre Dame National TV Market)
Providence (New England/Rhode Island)
St. Johns (New York City)
Seton Hall (New Jersey)
Villanova (Philadelphia)

If this is not satisfactory, Army and Navy could also join this conference as basketball only members and maintain Independence in football.  Other schools potentially available include UMass, Charlotte and Temple. By adding these any of these schools, the quality and strength of the conference will improve.

Sunday, October 2, 2011

Major League Baseball: a broken system

Fall is upon us and that means the playoffs for MLB.  I have always struggled to follow baseball.  I have tried multiple times to become a fan and develop an interest for the sport.  Perhaps the ineptitude of the Mariners has hindered my ability to create a passion that is similar to other sports.  Regardless, MLB is the one sports league that relishes living in the past and prides itself on traditionalist procedures.  However, the MLB is probably the most flawed sports league in the country at the moment.  

If you grew up playing baseball, you probably have a love for the game
If you live in Boston or New York, you probably have a love for the game
If you are old enough to remember the golden age, you probably have a love for the game

Everyone else is probably a casual fan.  Ya, I'll support my home team, but that's just because nothing else is on in the spring.  It's too early for football, and soccer is really the only other sport being played at the moment.  If MLB isn't careful, they will find themselves the fourth most popular league in the nation.  So what's wrong with the system?  Let's take a look-

1) Payroll...If you aren't the Yankees or the Red Sox, you are already at a huge disadvantage.  No team from the AL West or Central will get the wild card.  The fact that Tampa got it this year is an oddity, not a norm.  However, the majority of the US population does not live in Boston or NY.  Yes a fair number of people do, but there are other markets too.  As of now, its' whoever can afford the payroll.  If there was a salary cap, smaller venues could actually compete.  I find myself rooting for the Brewers this season...why?  Because they don't have the payroll of the Yankees or Rangers or Phillies, but are still finding a way to be successful.  Introducing a salary cap would allow other AL markets to get excited about baseball and that their team might one day make the playoffs.

2) expand the playoffs...MLB has 30 teams in the league right now.  Only 8 teams are in the playoffs.  The NFL has a 32 team league and 12 teams in the playoffs.  NBA or NHL?  Try 16 teams of the 30.  I think 16 is excessive.  No way should a team that finished in the bottom half of the league be playing for a title.  But 12 is a pretty good number.  It's enough teams to have increased interest, but not too many teams to make the regular season lose relevance.  Speaking of that regular season...

3) Shorten it...This is probably the biggest flaw of MLB.  The season should not be 162 games + postseason. There is no way any fan can catch every single game.  If you are in a struggling market like Seattle, the season just becomes torture after a while.  Supporting the 0-16 Lions is easier because despite the ineptitude, it is only 16 games.  Even a casual fan can watch their team 16 times and pray for a miracle.  But when you start being 20 games down, there is no hope.  No light at the end of the tunnel.  And for some teams, they are in this hole with 60 games left to play.  They may get on a streak, but the probability the cards land correctly to make the comeback?  Highly unlikely.  I could actually follow the Astros if the season was only 80 games.  By the time my team has proved their ineptitude, there's only about 20-40 games left.  I don't have to recognize that we aren't even halfway to the end of the season.  Besides, who has time to follow their team every single night for 3 months?  Not very many people.  For those of us who want to become supporters of our team, please help us out by shortening the season.

In addition...the postseason started just this last week.  The ALDS and NLDS had game 1 Friday/Saturday nights.  It is currently October.  With no offense to baseball, I am more inclined to watch #7 Wisconsin taking on #8 Nebraska than I am to watch the Yankees play the Tigers.  Why?  Because football is the dominant sport in the country.  In August, NFL preseason starts.  I would probably watch championship caliber baseball instead of NFL preseason.  I may even watch it in the beginning of September when the only college football games on are Florida vs Florida Atlantic University.  But when the marquee matchups start happening, you can bet baseball is taking a backseat.  I know I am not the only one who feels that way.  Perhaps if baseball played their playoff games on non-football nights, it might get better followings.  But with Thursday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday all having games, that only leaves a few nights available.  If you finish up the World Series in September, I won't have to choose between McNeese St.-Michigan or Phillies-Yankees.  It's better for the MLB, and it's better for the casual fan.  Because let's face it, if you can't appeal to a casual sports fan, your league will continue to decline.  There are only so many die-hards, and MLB already makes it difficult to be a true die-hard.  So help me follow baseball more.  Me and the rest of the nation.  Because what's happening now just isn't working.  




Tuesday, September 20, 2011

What about the teams that don't fit in these super-conferences?

Well if you are a fan of a school in the Mid-American conference or Sunbelt conference, you probably think I forgot about you.  Don't fear I remember that there are a number of schools in Louisiana and Ohio that are smaller and form their own conference.  Yet despite my best efforts there was no way I could merge the two to create a super-conference and quite frankly, don't feel it would be in their best interest.  These conferences serve as a gateway for schools in the FCS series to improve to the caliber of the bigger names.  The Mid-American conference would serve as a gateway for schools in the Midwest.  For those in the Southeast, the Sunbelt conference.  If any schools in a different area want to improve to the next level, they will have to go independent until a satisfactory number of schools is obtained.  The other thought I had was the Mountain West and Conference USA could serve as feeders for the Western part of the states while the MAC and Sunbelt serve as feeders in the Eastern portion of the states.  What would happen is the conferences would expand to 16 permanent members (MWC and C-USA already have their 16).  Afterwards, if other teams want to move up to the next level, they can apply for a temporary membership.  Each conference can hold a maximum of 4 temporary members who would have a conference affiliation for 3 years, until more schools jump up to make a conference for them.  If teams in the west wanted to expand, the MWC and C-USA could provide a temporary home for up to 8 members.  Afterwards, the west would have grown sufficiently to create a new conference.

Now what happens is each five years these non-AQ super-conferences will be evaluated for quality to see if they are eligible for the big postseason competition (that I will explain in the next post).  Emphasis will be placed on the accomplishments of the top 1/2 of the conference against other conferences.  This will all give rise to the postseason plans which will be unveiled in my next blog entry.  Keep reading!

Sunday, September 18, 2011

Rapid Reaction: ACC Accepts Pitt and Syracuse

I apologize for not writing for a while.  Due to a period of transition within my personal life, I had to slow down on writing blog entries.  I still need to get to the MAC and the Sun Belt conferences, but thought that this news from ACC land was too important and needed some analysis. By now you have probably heard that Pittsburgh and Syracuse are leaving for the ACC.  This will put the ACC at 14 teams, which could potentially result in the first super-conference.  Let's take a look at the new ACC:

Duke
UNC
NC State
Wake Forest
Virginia
Virginia Tech
Miami
Florida State
Georgia Tech
Clemson
Maryland
Boston College
*Syracuse
*Pittsburgh

Essentially rivalries are retained and actually created in this new version of the ACC.  Pittsburgh will create a rivalry with Maryland and Syracuse with Boston College.  Unless....

If the ACC decides to move to 16 teams the top 2 prospects should be UConn and Rutgers.  Adding UConn and Rutgers would put the ACC in control of the NYC and NE markets.   UConn could form a rivalry with Boston College, while the Syracuse-Rutgers rivalry would be renewed in a stronger conference.  Ultimately, I like the look of this ACC even better than my originally proposed look.  If you are from Iowa or Kansas, you should be hoping the ACC decides to expand to 16.  why?  let's take a look from the Big 10's perspective:

If the Big 10 expanded, the conference wanted to pick up a couple of major media markets in New England and NYC.  By the ACC picking up all of NE and NYC, it does two things:

1) forces the Big Ten to be active in expansion-with the formation of the first super-conference, the Big Ten will have to act and expand to keep up with the ACC and possibly the SEC and Pac
2) remove the attractive options from the Big East, forcing the Big Ten to look at the remnants of the Big 12.

The remnants of the Big East (if UConn and Rutgers joined the ACC) would be West Virginia, Louisville, Cincinatti, and South Florida.  The SEC is looking into courting West Virginia to offset the addition of Texas A&M. That essentially leaves Louisville, Cincinatti, and South Florida.  Alternatively, the remnants of the Big 12 available are Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, Missouri (may be going to SEC) and Baylor (assuming the Oklahoma schools and Texas/TexTech go west).  With the pool of viable options shrinking and no home-run option, the Big Ten might pick up the Kansas schools and Iowa State (really the only conference that could).  It will be interesting to see how the next few days develop but already the landscape is starting to look interesting. 

Saturday, September 10, 2011

The Super-conference USA

Recap: The Pac 16, ACC, SEC, and Big 10 have all expanded to develop 16 team super-conferences.  The WAC has merged with the Mountain West and the last remnants of the Big 12 to create a super-conference as well.  Despite the Mountain West not being an Automatic Qualifying conference, the league is organized similar to the other super-conferences for reasons which will be explored in a later blog post.  The MAC, Sun Belt and Conference USA are the only leagues left to develop into super-conferences.  Out of the remnants of the previous BCS era of stability, only USF remains non-attached to a conference, as  Baylor and TCU were relegated to the Mountain West.  

With the college landscape shifting to super-conferences, Conference USA decides it is their turn for expansion. The old C-USA consisted of the following schools:

Western Division:
Rice
Houston
SMU
UTEP
Tulsa
Tulane

Eastern Division:
Southern Miss
UAB
Memphis
Marshall
East Carolina
UCF

Conference USA is the 1st non-AQ conference to expand to 16 due to a number of programs stepping up to Division 1-A (FBS) status.  Ultimately, that is the purpose of the remaining conferences.  They will serve as a place for schools to upgrade to the next level and have a regional conference affiliation.  Conference USA is lucky that a number of schools have decided to make this leap, allowing them to immediately become a super-conference.  Among these schools are Texas State, UTSA, and Charlotte.  After these schools make the jump, Conference USA looks like:

Western Division:
Texas State
Houston
Rice
SMU
UTEP
UTSA
Tulsa
Tulane

Eastern Division:
Southern Miss
UAB
Memphis
Marshall
East Carolina
Charlotte
UCF
USF

So Conference USA does not have clear rivalry pairs intact.  Most schools however have 1 other school in the same state or bordering their state to create a rivalry.  Regardless, Conference USA attains Super-conference status.  Despite not being an AQ conference, the step up to a super-conference does have some significant benefits which will be explored in a few days.  Tomorrow we will preview the Mid American Conference.  Hope to see you there!

Mike

Friday, September 9, 2011

The Mountain Western Conference

Alright, after my last 4 posts, some people are bound to be a little upset, so I decided to do a double post tonight (not that anyone actually reads this...), but if people did, TCU, USF, Boise State and Baylor fans would be livid.  Which is why I am writing this blog on the Mountain Western conference now (sorry non-existent USF readers, you'll have to wait until tomorrow).  Now I want the others to know that this post will not make you feel better until the general posts on logistics and possibilities arise sometime next week.  This is just to let you know that you have a home.  And don't get too wrapped up, you still have the potential to make it into a pretty serious game if you do well enough to deserve it.  But enough of that, on to the Mountain West!

BYU and Utah have left the Mountain West for Independence or life as a Pac 12 school respectively.  TCU left to join the Big East, only for the Big East to be decimated in expansion by the ACC, SEC and Big 10.  With nowhere to go, TCU falls back to the Mountain West which decides to poach from the WAC and build a Super-conference of their own.

Revenue: I'll be honest with ya, the Mountain West doesn't have a lot of revenue based choices available to them.  Most of the football landscape has left for the 4 AQ Super-conferences. As a result, the option I present is rivalry based organized by travel pairs.  One division would be California heavy, while the other division would have a presence in Texas.  So let's take a look:

Mountain Western Super-conference:

Mountain Division:
Texas Christian University
Baylor
New Mexico
New Mexico State
Colorado State
Utah State
Wyoming

one of the following schools: BYU, Air Force, Montana.

Western Division:
San Jose State
Fresno State
San Diego State
Hawaii
Boise State
University of Idaho
University of Nevada-Reno
University of Nevada- Las Vegas

With BYU independent due to their strong religious affiliation (being the Mormon Notre Dame) and Air Force stuck with the turnover of a service academy, I predict both stay the route of an independent.  As a result, I suggest University of Montana make the leap to Division 1-FBS status and start playing with and making the money that the Big Boys do.  And despite the ACC-style names, the divisions are essentially split up geographically.  Aside from the expansion teams of Texas State and University of Texas San Antonio, the WAC has disappeared (and I will get to you two tomorrow).  The western portion of the US now knows where their school will play football (except for a number of Texas and Oklahoma schools).  If any FCS schools choose to explore the option of FBS status, then the whole situation will have to be re-evaluated.  In the meantime, we have another conference founded upon travel pairs in the Western US.  Tomorrow we will take a look at some Non AQ schools in the eastern part of the states.  Keep reading!

the mathematically challenged midwest

Recap: texas A&M has left the big 12 along with Missouri for the SEC. Oklahoma decided to leave for the pac 12 bringing texas, texas tech, and oklahoma state with them to form the Pac 16. the SEC has moved up to 16 to create the 2nd superconference.
disclaimer: even though the big ten will probably reach super-conference status before the ACC, i doubt the big ten will grab any ACC schools. At most, the big ten will grab a school or two from the big east cutting down the ACCs options for expansion.
before i preview the possibilities of the big ten, i gotta tip my hat to jim delaney for organizing the league such that all the top tier programs are not in the same division. With super-conferences, a team could only play 2 non divisional conference opponents at best. if one or two of these games is committed to their rival(s) then that leaves maybe 1 game in the other division. when i explore the logistics of a super-conference next week i will go more in detail.
The big ten currently consists of:
Michigan
Michigan State
Nebraska
Northwestern
Minnesota
Iowa
Penn State
Illinois
Indiana
Purdue
Ohio State
Wisconsin

I couldn't tell you which division is a leader or legend (and still feel those are awful names) but all 12 of the big ten are there.  So let's take a look at Big 10 expansion possibilities.

Revenue: The Big 10 wants to pick up markets which will help strengthen their profile.  Picking up NYC in the form of Syracuse or Rutgers would be the ideal situation for the Big 10.  In the West, I feel the Big 10 will be picking up the pieces of the Big 12 North.  Kansas might get a bid as they add a new state's worth of market and the school fits the academic profile.  I can't even try and split up divisions in the revenue based option as there are too many options.


Michigan
Michigan State
Nebraska
Northwestern
Minnesota
Iowa
Penn State
Illinois
Indiana
Purdue
Ohio State
Wisconsin
Rutgers or Syracuse
Pittsburgh
Kansas

1 of the following schools: Kansas State, Iowa State, the Rutgers/Syracuse not already picked, Louisville, Cincinatti,


Rivalries: Ideally the Big 10 could adopt a travel pair format similar to the Pac 12 (and my proposed SEC and ACC) by creating the following divisions:

Great Lakes:
Michigan
Michigan State
Ohio State
Wisconsin
Illinois
Northwestern
Indiana
Purdue

Great Plains:
Iowa
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State
Penn State
Pittsburgh
Nebraska
Minnesota

The great lakes division initially looks stacked, but it would be the only way to preserve the Ohio State-Michigan rivalry as well as the Michigan-Michigan State rivalry.  The great plains division has some top tier programs as well in Nebraska and Penn State, plus Iowa and Pittsburgh are usually competitive.

Alright this post concludes the series on Automatic qualifying conferences.  The next two posts will look at the Non-AQ Conferences and those left in the dark.  Afterwards, some general posts regarding logistics and potentials with this landscape will help us all explore the possibilities in this foreign and durastically altered setting.

Wednesday, September 7, 2011

ACC vs. Big East and the emergence of the 3rd super-conference

Recap: Texas A&M has left the Big 12 for the SEC.  Oklahoma decided to bolt for the Pac 12 causing the crumbling of the Big 12.  Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas and Texas Tech have joined the Pac 12 to form the Pac 16.  The SEC, not to be outdone by the west coast, invites Missouri to form an 8 team SEC West.  The SEC then raids 1-2 teams from the ACC to create the 2nd super-conference.

When the ACC expanded to 12 teams, the conference separated into the Atlantic and Coastal divisions.  Unless you are Heather Dinich or a coach or student in the ACC, you probably can't name which teams are Atlantic and which teams are Coastal.  The emergence of an ACC super-conference might actually create a recognizable landscape for the casual fan.  The ACC will be forced to react to the moves of the SEC.  As a result, there are 2 possible scenarios.

Scenario 1: SEC grabs two ACC schools from the following list: Florida State, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Georgia Tech

Scenario 2: SEC grabs one of the above schools and picks up a school from the Big East (I recommend Louisville)

The ACC currently consists of the following teams:

Boston College
Virginia
Virginia Tech
Florida State
Miami
University of North Carolina
Duke
NC State
Wake Forest
Georgia Tech
Maryland
Clemson

Out of the SEC poach list, I feel that Virginia Tech gains the least by leaving.  VT has been atop the ACC since joining the conference and consistently gets the added revenue of the BCS berth.  Joining the SEC would put VT in the middle of the pack.  My guess is Virginia Tech and Florida state are highest on Mike Slive's wish list, should the SEC decide to expand.  Georgia Tech would probably be the last option, as the Atlanta market is already solidified with the Bulldogs.

If the SEC got their way:
Boston College
Virginia
Miami
University of North Carolina
Duke
NC State
Wake Forest
Georgia Tech
Maryland
Clemson

The SEC poached 2 ACC teams and picked up the D.C. market in VT and the biggest school in Florida State.  To compensate, the ACC will raid the Big East to create the following conference:

ACC North:
Boston College
Connecticut
Syracuse
Rutgers
Virginia
Maryland

2 out of the following schools: West Virginia, Cincinnati, Louisville

ACC South:
UNC
Duke
NC State
Wake Forest
Miami
Georgia Tech
Clemson

 1 out of the following schools: Louisville, USF, UCF

My Preference

ACC North:
Boston College
Connecticut
Syracuse
Rutgers
Virginia
Virginia Tech
Cincinnati
West Virginia

ACC South:
Florida State
Miami
UNC
Duke
Wake Forest
NC State
Georgia Tech
Maryland

In my system, only 2 schools would not be natural travel pairs.   The two schools that are not (Maryland and Georgia Tech) however have quite a history in the ACC together.  Anyhow, that is my thoughts on what could go down in the ACC.  The ACC would pick up a strong presence in the New England (Boston) and New York markets through the addition of multiple Big East teams.  Tomorrow I will preview the 4th and final Super-conference, the more mathematically challenged Big 10.  Look forward to hearing your thoughts

Mike

Tuesday, September 6, 2011

The SEC

Recap: Texas A&M has left the Big 12 and pursued life as an Independent (ie avoiding conference affiliation fees associated with the SEC).  Oklahoma and Oklahoma State decided they are off to pursue the money of the Pac 12.  As a result Texas is forced to give up the Longhorn Network and buy into the Pac 16, bringing along Texas Tech.  The remnants of the Big 12 (Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Iowa State) are forced to see how the dominoes fall on conference alignment.

Tonight I will be exploring how the SEC would proceed in a Super-conference push.  I am a strong advocate of the strength of rivalries.  I have seen MLS flourish in the NW because of the foundation of the rivalry.  I am however a realist and recognize that the college football landscape is dominated by Revenue, not Rivalries.  I will offer my Rivalry system in this blog as well as explore the more likely revenue based possibilities. The only way the Super-conference movement occurs is if the SEC gets Texas A&M in their conference.  The SEC would only expand to create a footprint in Texas for recruiting and revenue purposes.

SEC West:
Louisiana State
Arkansas
Alabama
Auburn
Ole Miss
Mississippi State
Texas A&M
Missouri*

3 options for the 8th team in the West: Missouri, Baylor, Texas Christian
Honestly, I don't feel like Baylor adds much more to a Texas A&M rivalry than Missouri.  Both were previous Big 12 members and I have other plans for Baylor (to be revealed at a later date).  Texas Christian is the least likely, but still a possibility.  Picking up TCU would give the SEC the Dallas market as well as the Houston market from Texas A&M.  However I think when the day is done, Mizzou gets the nod due to the St. Louis market and proximity to Louisiana and Arkansas.  This is actually what I preferred but the other 2 options are possible as well.

SEC East:
Florida
Georgia
Tennessee
Vanderbilt
South Carolina
Kentucky

options for the SEC East: Clemson, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Louisville

This is where the SEC and I differ on revenue vs. rivalry .  The SEC will probably pick up Florida State and Virginia Tech to pick up a presence in the D.C. market and a big win school like Florida State.  If they didn't, my ACC configuration would work out nearly perfectly.  Revenue based expansion will pick up the aforementioned schools.  I personally would like to see the SEC pick up Clemson and Louisville.  Why?  Take a look at how the rivalries would look:

SEC East:                                               SEC West:
Florida-Georgia                                      Louisiana State-Arkansas
Clemson-South Carolina                         Alabama-Auburn
Tennessee-Vanderbilt                             Ole Miss-Mississippi State
Louisville-Kentucky                                Texas A&M-Missouri (or TCU or Baylor)

Anyhow, I think this would be pretty cool as 5 (maybe 6) of the rivalry pairs would be in-state rivals.  The other 2-3 would be border rivals.  Unfortunately the more likely scenario is posted below:

SEC East                                                           SEC West (same as above)
Florida-Florida State
Tennessee-Vanderbilt
Kentucky-Virginia Tech
Clemson-Georgia

Anyhow, tomorrow I will explore the effects of this expansion on the Atlantic Coast Conference and see how the ACC could adapt to develop a super-conference of their own.  This is actually my favorite layout of the super-conferences so you won't want to miss it!

Monday, September 5, 2011

The Super-conference frontier: How the Big 12 unrest could redefine the college landscape

Many of you may have heard that Texas A&M has opted to leave the Big 12.  After the summer which saw Nebraska leave for the Big 10 and Colorado leave for the Pac12, Texas A&M has decided that succombing to every whim of their big brother is not in their best interests and is exploring the option of joining the SEC.  Joining the SEC would be of mutual benefit to the conference and Texas A&M but could be the kiss of death to the Big 12 and the college football landscape as we know it.  I will admit I was against the Pac 16 in the beginning.  I still feel there is nothing pacific about Texas or Oklahoma, states that are more Midwestern than Pacific.  I welcomed Colorado and Utah with open arms seeing them as a good cultural fit (and helping to bring in $$$).  I also was a huge fan of the Pac 10's organization as 5 pairs of teams.  While some argue Colorado and Utah aren't exactly travel pairs or natural rivals, but I feel they are closer travel pairs than Colorado and one of three Texas schools.  With the Big 12 being Texas + 9, I feel super-conferences are inevitable.  I took it upon myself to examine what these super-conferences could look like and am gonna start a series on the potential new landscape of college football, as well as what future implications that could have.

Let's start with the easiest conference to predict: The Pacific 16

Western Division:
University of Washington
Washington State University
University of Oregon
Oregon State University
Stanford
UC Berkeley
USC
UCLA

Eastern Division:
University of Arizona
Arizona State University
University of Colorado
University of Utah
University of Oklahoma
Oklahoma State University
University of Texas-Austin
Texas Tech University

None of this should come as a surprise to anyone.  Essentially the Pac 12 merges with 4 teams from the Big 12, bringing the Big 12 down to 6 teams (hooray for college level math!)  I think the 4 teams added as pairs will work well but it will be dependent on if Texas is willing to buy into equal revenue sharing and altering the Longhorn Network.  If they are not, I foresee Texas going Independent as no other conference will want to be controlled by the Longhorns.  Larry Scott has made this clear and smaller schools such as OSU and WSU should be grateful that we have a great commissioner who will ensure the playing field is "level" (as much as can be) and that it doesn't turn into MLB with the only teams that are relevant are the teams with the $$$ (see Yankees and Red Sox).  Tomorrow night I will preview how the dominoes of Texas A&M could affect the SEC and preview what the potential SEC Super-conference could look like.  

Welcome to the blog!

Greetings and welcome to my new blog, two cents none the richer.  Throughout my life I often find myself contemplating complexities and trying to develop the best systems possible.  Those who know me know I am passionate about sports.  This blog will feature my thoughts on current issues in the sports world, philosophical dilemmas, and just about anything under the sun.  I am a senior in college who will be graduating with a microbiology degree in June of 2012.   I enjoy long walks on the beach and candelit dinners...just kidding.  But my primary sports of interest are football, soccer, basketball, hockey, baseball and lacrosse.  As a result most of my sports discussions will arise from these fields.  Anyhow, I hope you enjoy the blog.  And while my two cents may not make you any richer, I hope it will serve as a tool to expand horizons and explore unknown territories.  Welcome to the blog!

-Mike